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Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence
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Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

Fourth Edition


February 2026 | CQ Press
With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? 

The Fourth Edition includes an exploration of use and implications of artificial intelligence, increased coverage of cyber issues such as digital disinformation and deepfakes, and new case studies. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.
 
List of Figures
 
Foreword
 
Preface
 
About the Authors
 
Introduction to the Fourth Edition
 
Introduction
 
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
 
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
 
Chapter 7: How Do Models and Artificial Intelligence Help My Analysis?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Part III: What Is My Argument?
 
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 14: How Do I Present to Policymakers?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong—Or on the Doorstep of an Unmitigated Success?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
 
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 19: Am I Presenting My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Setting the Stage

 
Looking More Deeply

 
Key Takeaways

 
Considering the Case Study

 
Notes

 
 
Appendix A: Definitions of Biases and Traps
 
Appendix B: Definitions of Intuitive Traps
 
Part V: Case Studies
 
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory in the Arctic
 
Case Study II: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
 
Case Study III: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers?
 
Case Study IV: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes
 
Glossary of Terms
 
List of Names
 
Recommended Readings
 
US Government Publications
 
Index

In Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, the Phersons have provided an invaluable road map for anyone seeking to improve the ability to conceptualize, research, and write compelling analysis. It stands apart from other literature in making a persuasive case for critical thinking up front to pave the way for clarity of message and rigor in argumentation. It is simply a must-read for any serious student of intelligence analysis.

Fran Moore
Former Director of Intelligence, US Central Intelligence Agency
Blurb

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is the go-to book for current and aspiring intelligence analysts.

John Comiskey
Monmouth University
Review

No one has given more thought to the improvement and the teaching of analytic techniques than Kathy and Randy Pherson. The fourth edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is a welcome update of their now–must-have book. Dealing with an increasing flow of incoming information and creating from that well-written, thoughtful analysis is a daunting challenge. This book is well organized, extremely accessible, and profusely illustrated with useful figures. It will continue to benefit analysts—in all fields, not just intelligence—as well as managers of analysts and those who teach courses on analysis.

Mark Lowenthal
Former US Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Protection
Blurb

Kathy and Randy Pherson artfully weave together scholarship and experience in this update to their foundational work. The book reveals—not answers—something much more important: how to ask questions. It provides readers the skills they need to navigate the ocean of the often-conflicting, irrelevant, and incorrect information in which we all live today.

Alan Wade
Former Chief Information Officer, US Intelligence Community
Blurb

The fourth edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence provides significant updates and remains a "must have" for any student of the nature and process of effective intelligence analysis. Highly recommended for the classroom, for those new to the profession of intelligence research and analysis and for anyone seeking to produce more effect reports and presentations.

Gregory Moore
Notre Dame College
Review

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is an effective compliment to methods literature. The book's perspective on communicating persuasively defines important objectives that need to be accomplished in research designs.

Charles Mitchell
Grambling State University
Review

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Paperback
ISBN: 9781071902288
£60.00