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Intelligence Analysis
A Target-Centric Approach

Eighth Edition


March 2026 | 512 pages | CQ Press
Now in its Eighth Edition, Robert M. Clark's classic Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. In addition to looking at the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers, the author also examines key advances and emerging fields like activity-based intelligence and artificial intelligence-enabled analysis. Through features like end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with an insider perspective to serve as an ideal and insightful resource for students at all levels as well as practitioners.
 
Preface
 
Acknowledgments
 
Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product
 
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails

 
What this Book Is About

 
Summary

 
 
Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict

 
Tools of Conflict

 
Synergy of the Tools

 
The Function of Intelligence

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle

 
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process

 
The Target

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 4: The Customer
Overview of Customers

 
Understanding the Customer

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 5: The Analyst
Critical and Logical Thinking

 
Objectivity

 
Broad Perspective

 
Good Instincts

 
The All-source Analyst’s Role

 
The Analysis Team

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
The US National Intelligence Network

 
Homeland Security and Law Enforcement

 
Military

 
Nongovernmental Entities

 
Network Collaboration and Sharing

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
Intelligence Research

 
Current Intelligence

 
Indications and Warning

 
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?

 
Constraints on the Intelligence Product

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Part II: The Analysis Process
 
Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
Preliminary Questions

 
Issue Definition

 
Issue Decomposition

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 9: Target Models
Modeling the Intelligence Target

 
General Target Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 10: The Target Framework
Creating a Target Framework

 
Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology

 
Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan

 
Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat

 
Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence

 
Acquiring Raw Intelligence

 
Evaluating Evidence

 
Combining the Evidence

 
Structured Argumentation

 
A Note about the Role of Information Technology

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 12: The Information Sources
Filling Gaps

 
Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework

 
Identifying Gaps

 
Developing the Collection Strategy

 
Executing Collection Strategies

 
Analyst-Collector Interaction

 
Evaluating Collection

 
Collection Requirements

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial

 
Deception

 
Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods

 
Countering Denial and Deception

 
Signaling

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance
Structuring the Message

 
Presenting the Message

 
Reviewing the Analytic Product

 
Customer Interaction

 
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In

 
Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence
 
Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
Background Forces

 
Synergy

 
Causal Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena

 
The Estimative Approach

 
Unintended Consequences

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 17: Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?

 
Types of Scenarios

 
Scenario Perspectives

 
How to Construct Scenarios

 
Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Systems Analysis Methodology

 
Performance

 
Process

 
Risk

 
Cost

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
Link Models

 
Network Models

 
Network Analysis

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models

 
Dynamic Geospatial Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations

 
Using Simulations

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence
The Process

 
Scenarios

 
Operations Research

 
Simulations

 
Prescriptive Analytics

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach
Introduction

 
A Possible Future Scenario

 
Conclusion: Can This Work?

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE

 
The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE

 
Capstone Critical Thinking Questions

 
 
List of Commonly Used Acronyms
 
Index
 
About the Author

An excellent book that is useful to students, instructors, and practitioners. The structure of the book is easy to follow, with a range of questions at the end of each chapter that can stimulate learning.

Scott Keay
Edge Hill University
Review

A very practical and research-oriented text on the world of intelligence and analysis. This text presents issues of contemporary importance to the national security and intelligence community and critical thinking opportunities for the reader to apply logic to contemporary issues.

Robert Girod
Indiana State University
Review

This is an outstanding text written by a distinguished intelligence professional and educator. Students will appreciate and benefit from its straightforward style and presentation of intelligence concepts, and faculty will appreciate its comprehensive coverage of essential intelligence principles. Practical and contemporary examples are provided to illustrate the topics, concepts, and principles that are essential to understanding the process of intelligence analysis.

Vincent E. Henry
Long Island University
Review

A basic and thorough view of the intelligence analysis products, process, and community.

Robert Alonzo
Texas A&M University - San Antonio
Review

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ISBN: 9781071951927
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