The Second Edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence provides a basic introduction to the critical thinking skills employed within the intelligence community. This easy-to-use handbook is framed around twenty key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. Drawing upon their decades of teaching and analytic experience, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated the book with useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques used to arrive at the best possible analytical product.
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
About the Authors
Introduction to the Second Edition
Part I. How Do I Get Started?
1. Who Are Your Clients?
2. What Are the Key Questions?
3. What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
5. What Is My Analytic Approach?
6. Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Part II. Where Is the Information I Need?
7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?
8. What Types of Information Are Available?
9. Can I Trust the Sources?
10. How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Part III. What Is My Argument?
11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
12. Can I Make My Case?
13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?
15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV. How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
16. Is My Argument Persuasive?
17. How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
19. How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
20. How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Part V. Case Studies
I. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and Its Broader Implications
II. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
III. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
IV. Financial Crises in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?
V. Yemen: An Expanding Security Threat?
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
US Government Publications
The Analyst’s Roadmap (Inside Back Cover)