You are here

Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections
Share

Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections

First Edition


May 2018 | 448 pages | CQ Press

“A serious book that looks at theories of voting behavior in a comprehensive and comprehensible manner.”

—Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University

 

“Data-driven, thorough, and rigorous. Change and Continuity is in-depth and wide-ranging in its coverage, making it ideal for an introductory American politics course.”

—Abbie Erler, Kenyon College

 

Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections?

 

Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and election research experience to help this top-notch author team meticulously explain the latest National Election Studies data and discuss its importance and impact. Readers will critically analyze a variety of variables such as the presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. Readers will walk away with a better understanding of this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics.


 
Tables and Figures
 
Preface
 
About the Authors
 
INTRODUCTION
Change and Continuity  
Voters and the Act of Voting  
Survey Research Sampling  
Plan of the Book  
 
PART I. THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
 
CHAPTER 1. The Nomination Struggle
Who Ran  
The Rules of the Nomination System  
Strategy and the Candidates’ Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations  
 
CHAPTER 2. The General Election Campaign
The Strategic Context and Candidates’ Choices  
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves  
From the Conventions to the Debates  
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout  
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?  
 
CHAPTER 3. The Election Results
The Election Rules  
The Pattern of Results  
State-by-State Results  
Electoral Change in the Postwar South  
The Electoral Vote Balance  
 
PART II. VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
 
CHAPTER 4. Who Voted?
Voter Turnout, 1789–1916  
Voter Turnout, 1920–2016  
Voter Turnout among Social Groups  
Changes in Turnout after 1960  
Election-Specific Factors  
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?  
 
CHAPTER 5. Social Forces and the Vote
How Social Groups Voted in 2016  
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years  
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down  
 
CHAPTER 6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
Attitudes toward the Candidates  
Prospective Evaluations  
Issue Positions and Perceptions  
Issue Voting Criteria  
Apparent Issue Voting in 2016  
Conclusion  
 
CHAPTER 7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
What Is Retrospective Voting?  
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems  
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Evaluations of the Incumbent  
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations  
Conclusion  
 
CHAPTER 8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View  
Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View  
Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis?  
Party Identification in the Electorate  
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016  
Party Identification and the Vote  
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations  
Conclusion  
 
PART III. THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
 
CHAPTER 9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2016
Election Outcomes in 2016  
Candidates’ Resources and Election Outcomes  
The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress  
The 2018 Elections and Beyond  
 
CHAPTER 10. The Congressional Electorate in 2016
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote  
Issues and the Congressional Vote  
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote  
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote  
The Congressional Vote as Referendum  
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote  
Conclusion  
 
PART IV. THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
 
CHAPTER 11. The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System  
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization  
Change and Continuity in Turnout  
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship  
Changes in the Partisan Electorate  
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress  
 
Appendix
 
Notes
 
Index

“A serious book that looks at theories of voting behavior in a comprehensive and comprehensible manner.”

Brad Lockerbie
East Carolina University

“Data-driven, thorough, and rigorous. Change and Continuity is in-depth and wide-ranging in its coverage, making it ideal for an introductory American politics course.”

Abbie Erler
Kenyon College

Preview this book

For instructors

Inspection copies for this title are available digitally via VitalSource.

e-inspection copy

If you require a print inspection copy, please contact your local sales rep

Select a Purchasing Option