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Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections
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Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections



May 2018 | 448 pages | CQ Press
Since its first edition in 1980, Change and Continuity has been known for offering the best analysis and explanation of voting behavior in the most recent election, setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. This top-notch author team meticulously explains the latest National Election Studies data and analyzes its importance and impact: covering the presidential and Congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. The 2016 Edition is thoroughly revised to cover this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics. 
 
Part I: The 2016 Presidential Election
 
Chapter 1: The Nomination Struggle
Who Ran  
The Rules of the Nomination System  
The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns  
 
Chapter 2: The General Election Campaign
The Strategic Context and Candidates’ Choices  
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves  
From the Conventions to the Debates  
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout  
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?  
 
Chapter 3: The Election Results
The Election Rules  
The Pattern of Results  
State-by-State Results  
Electoral Change in the Postwar South  
The Electoral Vote Balance  
 
Part II: Voting Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election
 
Chapter 4: Who Voted?
Voter Turnout, 1789–1916  
Voter Turnout, 1920–2016  
Voter Turnout among Social Groups  
Changes in Turnout after 1960  
Election-Specific Factors  
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?  
 
Chapter 5: Social Forces and the Vote
How Social Groups Voted in 2016  
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years  
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down  
 
Chapter 6: Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
Attitudes toward the Candidates  
Prospective Evaluations  
Issue Positions and Perceptions  
Issue Voting Criteria  
Apparent Issue Voting in 2016  
Conclusion  
 
Chapter 7: Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
What Is Retrospective Voting?  
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems  
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Evaluations of the Incumbent  
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations  
Conclusion  
 
Chapter 8: Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View  
Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: An Alternative View  
Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis?  
Party Identification in the Electorate  
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016  
Party Identification and the Vote  
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations  
Conclusion  
 
Part III: The 2016 Congressional Elections
 
Chapter 9: Candidates and Outcomes in 2016
Election Outcomes in 2016  
Candidates’ Resources and Election Outcomes  
The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress  
The 2018 Elections and Beyond  
 
Chapter 10: The Congressional Electorate in 2016
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote  
Issues and the Congressional Vote  
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote  
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote  
The Congressional Vote as Referendum  
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote  
Conclusion  
 
Part IV: The 2016 Elections in Perspective
 
The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System  
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization  
Change and Continuity in Turnout  
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship  
Changes in the Partisan Electorate  
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress  

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ISBN: 9781544320250
£54.00