Before the Vote
Forecasting American National Elections
Edited by:
- James E. Campbell
- James Garand - Louisiana State University, USA
Other Titles in:
Television and Radio
Television and Radio
February 2000 | 232 pages | SAGE Publications, Inc
Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether ever more accurate models of predicting voting behaviour damage the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus as to who the winner will be.
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
James E Campbell and James C Garand
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
James E Campbell
Polls and Votes
Alan Abramowitz
Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
Helmut Norpoth
Of Time and Candidates
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
The Future in Forecasting
Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
Thomas Holbrook
Reading the Political Tea Leaves
Brad Lockerbie
Election Forecasting
Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
Nathaniel Beck
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
James E Campbell
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections