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Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections
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Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections

First Edition


July 2018 | 448 pages | CQ Press

“A serious book that looks at theories of voting behavior in a comprehensive and comprehensible manner.”

—Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University

 

“Data-driven, thorough, and rigorous. Change and Continuity is in-depth and wide-ranging in its coverage, making it ideal for an introductory American politics course.”

—Abbie Erler, Kenyon College

 

Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections?

 

Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and election research experience to help this top-notch author team meticulously explain the latest National Election Studies data and discuss its importance and impact. Readers will critically analyze a variety of variables such as the presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. Readers will walk away with a better understanding of this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics.


 
Tables and Figures
 
Preface
 
About the Authors
 
INTRODUCTION
Change and Continuity

 
Voters and the Act of Voting

 
Survey Research Sampling

 
Plan of the Book

 
 
PART I. THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
 
CHAPTER 1. The Nomination Struggle
Who Ran

 
The Rules of the Nomination System

 
Strategy and the Candidates’ Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations

 
 
CHAPTER 2. The General Election Campaign
The Strategic Context and Candidates’ Choices

 
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves

 
From the Conventions to the Debates

 
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout

 
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?

 
 
CHAPTER 3. The Election Results
The Election Rules

 
The Pattern of Results

 
State-by-State Results

 
Electoral Change in the Postwar South

 
The Electoral Vote Balance

 
 
PART II. VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
 
CHAPTER 4. Who Voted?
Voter Turnout, 1789–1916

 
Voter Turnout, 1920–2016

 
Voter Turnout among Social Groups

 
Changes in Turnout after 1960

 
Election-Specific Factors

 
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?

 
 
CHAPTER 5. Social Forces and the Vote
How Social Groups Voted in 2016

 
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years

 
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down

 
 
CHAPTER 6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
Attitudes toward the Candidates

 
Prospective Evaluations

 
Issue Positions and Perceptions

 
Issue Voting Criteria

 
Apparent Issue Voting in 2016

 
Conclusion

 
 
CHAPTER 7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
What Is Retrospective Voting?

 
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems

 
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent

 
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent

 
Evaluations of the Incumbent

 
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations

 
Conclusion

 
 
CHAPTER 8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View

 
Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: A Second View

 
Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis?

 
Party Identification in the Electorate

 
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016

 
Party Identification and the Vote

 
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations

 
Conclusion

 
 
PART III. THE 2016 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
 
CHAPTER 9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2016
Election Outcomes in 2016

 
Candidates’ Resources and Election Outcomes

 
The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress

 
The 2018 Elections and Beyond

 
 
CHAPTER 10. The Congressional Electorate in 2016
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote

 
Issues and the Congressional Vote

 
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote

 
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote

 
The Congressional Vote as Referendum

 
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote

 
Conclusion

 
 
PART IV. THE 2016 ELECTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
 
CHAPTER 11. The 2016 Elections and the Future of American Politics
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System

 
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization

 
Change and Continuity in Turnout

 
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship

 
Changes in the Partisan Electorate

 
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress

 
 
Appendix
 
Notes
 
Index

“A serious book that looks at theories of voting behavior in a comprehensive and comprehensible manner.”

Brad Lockerbie
East Carolina University

“Data-driven, thorough, and rigorous. Change and Continuity is in-depth and wide-ranging in its coverage, making it ideal for an introductory American politics course.”

Abbie Erler
Kenyon College

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ISBN: 9781544320250
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